Future Modeling and Monitoring of Development Impacts

Monitoring wells drilled on the Basin fringe between the outcrop and producing gas wells in the Southern Ute Indian Reservation have documented significant declines in bottom hole pressure (up to 80 psig) equivalent to a loss of hydrostatic head of 185 feet (Appendix C: Chart 19).  This suggests that the static water level has declined approximately 185 feet in the lower intermediate coal seam during the two years since the monitoring wells were drilled in early 1997.  Hydrostatic pressures in other coal seams monitored at these wells have declined at slower rates.   No monitoring wells were placed in non-coal horizons to measure whether these adjacent horizons were depleted of groundwater.
As a decline in the water table would be anticipated to precede increased methane seepage at the Fruitland outcrop, the presence of groundwater monitoring wells completed in each significant coalbed could provide early detection of problematic conditions.  Because of different dynamics in the various coal seams, the 2-5 major producing seams (or groups of seams) would necessarily be isolated in respective monitoring wells to yield definitive data without introducing cross-flow ambiguities.

 

A joint industry/governmental group organized by the COGCC was formed in late 1998. Entitled the 3M Project (named for the monitoring, mapping and modeling components), it is supported by the BLM, COGCC, Southern Ute Indian Tribe, La Plata County, and the oil and gas industry.  A technical review team has been formed from the 3M-member constituency.  This team offers technical comments and reviews proposals for studies related to the reservoir modeling, hydrology of the San Juan Basin, stratigraphy and structure of the coalbeds, and other technical issues.  The Bureau of Land Management-SJFO has committed time and resources to this effort. The first goal of the 3M Project is to map major coal seams at the Fruitland Formation outcrop and correlate these horizons with basin-ward producing coal zones identified in gas well geophysical logs.  Monitoring bottom hole pressure and water levels in coal seams at locations intermediate between basin-ward producing gas wells and the Fruitland coal outcrop is the second goal.  The third aspect of the 3M Project involves computer modeling.  Reservoir and hydrologic models will take into consideration a historical match of past and present conditions and may be able to predict effects of future CBM development on groundwater and the Fruitland coal outcrop.

 

[Where Basin-ward coal seams are contiguous between producing CBM wells, the Fruitland outcrop and the coal seams, the hydrologic system may reflect a “U-tube” concept.  Consequently, a dynamic fresh water front could migrate into the Basin, postulated as follows: Coal beds deposited in an aqueous environment saturated with connate water following the coalification process would have the equilibrated hydrostatic pressures disrupted by subsidence of the basin relative to the basin ridges. Migration of connate water would have been induced by the effects of relative topography and perpetuated by atmospheric recharge events subsequent to the formation of the basin. The hydrostatic driving force of recharge water entry into the system through topographically elevated exposures would be anticipated to promulgate groundwater flow through the coals preferentially seeking the most permeable, oxidized, fractured and cleated zones, which in general reside relatively near the outcrop.  Fossil formation pressure release augmented by surface recharge would be manifested by seeps at topographic lows such as springs, and lend a contribution of sub-flow to streams and rivers where coal outcrops/subcrops were intersected.  With the onset of CBM water production, water was withdrawn from coalbeds within the Basin, locally reducing reservoir pressure around each gas well.  This pressure reduction was paramount in enabling gas desorption.  The reduced pressure gradient emanating outward from the gas well(s) as the water is produced would be largely dependent on the permeability of the coal relative to water.  The artificially induced pressure gradient would tend to draw surrounding water toward the lower pressure. Dependant upon migration pathways present and the permeability along these pathways, freshwater recharge could be captured and historic pathways of groundwater flow altered.  If recharge were insufficient to replenish water withdrawn by basin fringe gas wells near the outcrop, reversals of groundwater flow might occur with subcrops being recharged by surface flow from perennial rivers/streams. As pressure gradients from a host of gas wells coalesce, a fresh-water front would progress basin-ward.  If sufficient water were produced from shallow coalbed(s) proximate to the outcrop,  a major portion of the fresh water available might be captured, thus pre-empting or slowing the basin-ward migration of the fresh-water front.  (Basin-ward wells could only draw stored water available within their respective pressure depletion zones of influence until the water surrounding them was depleted.)  Two-phase (water and gas) flow dynamics can decrease relative permeability to water.  Therefore, the zone of influence of some interior basin wells may be very limited with respect to the ability to draw water from the basin fringes.  Considering these scenarios, gas wells may provide a shield between basin-fringe wells and interior basing wells starving basin interior wells from fresh water access.  (See next page for illustration.)

Water chemistry data is useful in understanding patterns of groundwater flow.  In contrast to Basin-interior produced water characterized by high TDS (total dissolved solids) associated with longer residence time are produced-water chemistry data from Fruitland coalbed gas wells on the northwestern edge of the Basin, the latter showing lower concentrations of chlorides and bicarbonates-a signature of fresher water.  Produced water data indicates the presence of a relatively fresh water (low TDS) plume along the western end of the Indian Creek drainage and also along the northern portion of the Basin within 4-5 miles of the Fruitland coal outcrop.   The occurrence of relatively fresh water in the coalbeds close to the Basin fringes indicates connection to a fresh water source, presumably the Fruitland outcrop. These fresh water zones, areas with moderate communication with the outcrop, and areas with limited interaction with areas of recharge need to be identified to calibration the current computer modeling effort so that the model may reliably reflect the nuances of known basin hydrology.

 

Water character including chemistry (age-dating and anion/cation relationships) and TDS concentrations can be affected by mixing.  Age dating of water relies on assessing the amount of radioactive decay within a dissolved mineral.  Unfortunately, water tends to take on the character of the host rock, slowly equilibrating through time, and will ultimately reflect the age/character of the rock.  Accurate age dating is complicated by the introduction of uranium-laden volcanic ash deposited as thin layers within the coal beds. Mixed waters tend to reflect an age proportional to the relative quantities of water of different antiquity.  Neither could water with an initial high TDS be recognized, once diluted by fresher water.  Mixing obscures the individual character of all waters mixed because the results of testing can only determine the diluted concentrations of any given parameter.  Once these limitations are recognized, different types of water chemistry analyses taken together can provide useful information, but taken singly may prove misleading.  Iodine and chloride ion content in produced water may yield patterns suggesting that areas with high iodine and chloride concentrations correlate with older water that has been in residence with the coals for extended periods of time.  Higher TDS/older water indicates slower migration rates, lower permeability of the coal locally, and diminished likelihood of significant interaction with the coal outcrop.  Low chloride/TDS values likely correlate with progressively younger or mixed water.  Similar water quality analyses for total dissolved solids and cation-anion concentrations in produced water in the western portion of the Basin also suggest freshwater plumes, and freshening of produced water over time progressing basin-ward to some extent.  In specific areas, a line of demarcation seems apparent where produced water is freshening toward the Basin fringes and gaining in salinity with production basin-ward.  Water character boundaries may not necessarily represent static and impermeable barriers to flow, but merely current conditions.   Water of antiquity may suggest areas not in effective dynamic communication with the outcrop, or alternatively may depict the current inter-face position of a progressive fresh-water-front moving basin-ward.  Neither do water chemistry variances necessarily signify that the coalbeds of the Fruitland Formation are not laterally contiguous.  Dynamic relationships may become evident only after further coalbed methane/ formation water production and a time factor allows equilibration throughout the formation between respective coalbeds.  Gas wells drilled/producing in areas of fresh water are construed more likely to affect the outcrop than gas wells in areas depicted by more saline water.  Monitoring over time may provide useful parameters enabling computer modeling to forecast effects of continued or increased CBM production.

 

There has been an effort to definitively correlate water-bearing coalbeds in the respective gas well(s) to specific coal beds expressed at the surface.  The Southern Ute Indian Tribe and the Colorado Geological Survey have mapped surface expressions of the Fruitland coalbeds within the Southern Ute Indian Reservation and have drawn preliminary correlations between the outcrop and coalbeds penetrated by nearby CBM wells.  The Colorado Geological Survey has recently completed mapping the Fruitland Formation coal outcrops north of the Southern Ute Indian Reservation with the intention of correlating surface and sub-surface coal beds. Unfortunately, the depositional environment of the coals may preclude extensive correlation of more than a few miles.   Recognizing the depositional environment with transitional regressive shoreline advances and retreats, the predecessor coalbeds tended to pinch out with later replacement by another coal horizon.  Which coals are contiguous in three-dimensional relationships or communicate between layers is debated.  Current modeling assumes that the coal packages act as a unit on a regional scale.]

 

The monitoring goal of the 3M Project includes the establishment of eight water monitoring well clusters proposed north of the Southern Ute Indian Reservation.  Four additional clusters - apart from the 3M Project - are being considered by the Southern Ute Indian Tribe for installation within the exterior boundaries of the Southern Ute Indian Reservation (See Appendix B: Maps and Cross-Sections 15.)  Each cluster would contain 2-4 water-monitoring wells, each well assessing one exclusive coal zone comprised of one to a few closely related coal seams.  These wells would be monitored for temperature and water level/bottom hole pressure.  Temperature may be an indirect indicator of fresh water influx (decrease in temperature) or water withdrawal (the heat of wetting).  Water level/bottom hole pressures will help evaluate the drawdown effects on the piezometric surface by production of water from basin-ward coal wells.

 

The modeling goal of the 3M Project will evaluate the hydrologic and gas reservoir potential of the Fruitland coalbeds.  Pressure data gathered from producing gas wells and monitoring wells will be used in a modified reservoir to determine past and future effects on the outcrop and feasibility, both economic and environmental, on continued development including infill drilling within the Ignacio-Blanco Field.  The hydrologic portion will use the US Geological Survey “MODFLOW” program to calculate recharge along the outcrop, discharge out of the Basin from production activities and other influences that would affect water quality and quantity in the San Juan Basin.

 

In addition to water monitoring wells, other monitoring tools include thermal infrared and near infrared aerial photography of the entire Colorado portion of the San Juan Basin Fruitland outcrop along the Basin rim.  These aerial photos document current conditions, changes from prior photos, and may identify zones of aberrant heat patterns.  As a predictive tool, thermal infrared photos may be used to distinguish areas of potential spontaneous combustion in the near-surface coalbeds.   Additionally, temperature data loggers installed in the Fruitland coalbeds may provide early warning of coalbed heating.  Ongoing monitoring of soil vapor, groundwater and produced water quality will augment the monitoring effort.